"Yeah huh!"
"Wanna bet?"
Do you remember the first time this happened to you? I don't. I don't remember the first time, or how it was explained to me, or how things would proceed from here, but whenever that first time was, was apparently a very influential moment for me. I do remember many times coaxing a bet out of someone, and we're not just talking about the outcome of a Boxing match or a Football game (those too) but specifically a Prop Bet.
What is a Prop Bet?
I'm going to presume most of you are at least somewhat familiar with the term, you can find more lengthy explanation here. But we're basically talking about two people wagering on an otherwise arbitrary future event. Gamers, especially poker players and golfers, are known for placing prop bets on just about anything. At a poker table, I've wagered on the following. "How many of the tiny complementary waterbottles can you drink in 45 seconds?" "How many people will drop out of this table before a female sits down?" On the golf course I've had wagers like, "Closest to the pin." or "Longest Drive." These aren't exactly the traditional prop bet, but technically fit the definition because they are arbitrary to the actual outcome of the golf match.
Prop Bets of Recent History
Most of you who read my blog know about my bet with @semisober. I sold him an options contract. If you're familiar with options, I sold him 75 puts on snapcaster mage, at a average cost of $4.50 each, and a strike price of $22 expiring Dec 1. For those of you who aren't, I made 75(x-17.50) where x is the current cost of a snapcaster, but my winnings are capped at $4.50 per card. While he wins if price falls below 17.50, and he would make 75(17.50-x). I won this one, and we settled on a final amount owed of $150, or $2/card. Yay money. This isn't my typical prop bet, but I enjoyed it. I don't typically take prop bets that are "sharp". This one was pretty sharp. I was willing to take on some amount of risk here, but I also wanted to prey upon @semisober talking in superlative about the future of Snapcaster Mage.
I've also won a few recent bets against @SoupaJoeViola (this guy is an EDH king, and an overall funny guy, #FF etc). After a draft at our LGS, he shows me his deck saying how strong it is, and he's guaranteeing a trip to the finals. I grin, and peek at his deck. I bet him $5 that he wouldn't make the finals with said deck. He was offended, but snap called. What did I know that he didn't? Even if his deck was amazing (which it was OK but not something to write home about) and he had a 60% chance of winning each match, thats only a 36% of making the finals, and i'm betting him 1-to-1. After I won this bet, and the next one he drafted I won another $5, I think he learned his lesson.
My proudest Prop Bet...
For those of you who've met me, I'm not exactly an athletic guy anymore. I played sports in high school, but sports was always a distant third in priorities behind academics and social life. I played on the UCSD ultimate frisbee team my first few years of college, but that quickly fell down my list of college-life priorities also. My senior year, my closest friend coaxed me into joining the Water Polo team with him. He'd payed all 4 years, and was a local star. I, on the other hand, didn't know how to swim. At least, not much more than survival level. He sold me on it because the JV squad needed a goalie, and there was some caveat that Seniors could play JV if they hadn't played in the previous years (kinda like red-shirting I guess?). Anyway, long story short (Too Late!), I played the year, led our team to a 13-1 season, and the take away is I'm now a pretty strong swimmer. Fast Forward 4 years to my senior year of college.... My room mate, some friends and I are participating in some illicit entertainment at our apartment, and he gets to talking about how when he went to visit his folks, he exercised in their pool. He was surprised how exhausting treading water could be, and that he could only do it for about 10 minutes without getting winded. I laughed in his face. Being in my worst shape of my life as a senior in high school, he's certain he'd be better at this physical activity than I. After about an hour of discussion, I say... "I could tread water for an hour." The room quiets down. Everyone knows what's going to happen next. My room mate hits the tank for about 45 seconds, and then says, "Can you do it tomorrow?" The rest is negotiating the details of the wager (no Floating-must stay verticle, chin can't touch the water for an hour), and me making sure we can pool up enough action where i'm willing to make an ass of myself in a swimming pool in front of everyone. After $300 in action is on the table, we wake up early the next day and hit the local Pool. It's hard to give much detail to the actual event itself. I mean it was probably the most boring thing in the world if you didn't have any action on it. But my friends were either Cheering or Jeering depending on what side of the bet they were on, as i calmly cycle my legs around in the diving well of this local pool. Parents of kids getting swimming lessons were staring and whispering, but I just kept treading. Surely enough, I completed the hour (as I well knew I could a few hours if needed), a bunch of money changed hands, and we had a huge party.
Why make prop bets?
Prop Bets of Recent History
Most of you who read my blog know about my bet with @semisober. I sold him an options contract. If you're familiar with options, I sold him 75 puts on snapcaster mage, at a average cost of $4.50 each, and a strike price of $22 expiring Dec 1. For those of you who aren't, I made 75(x-17.50) where x is the current cost of a snapcaster, but my winnings are capped at $4.50 per card. While he wins if price falls below 17.50, and he would make 75(17.50-x). I won this one, and we settled on a final amount owed of $150, or $2/card. Yay money. This isn't my typical prop bet, but I enjoyed it. I don't typically take prop bets that are "sharp". This one was pretty sharp. I was willing to take on some amount of risk here, but I also wanted to prey upon @semisober talking in superlative about the future of Snapcaster Mage.
I've also won a few recent bets against @SoupaJoeViola (this guy is an EDH king, and an overall funny guy, #FF etc). After a draft at our LGS, he shows me his deck saying how strong it is, and he's guaranteeing a trip to the finals. I grin, and peek at his deck. I bet him $5 that he wouldn't make the finals with said deck. He was offended, but snap called. What did I know that he didn't? Even if his deck was amazing (which it was OK but not something to write home about) and he had a 60% chance of winning each match, thats only a 36% of making the finals, and i'm betting him 1-to-1. After I won this bet, and the next one he drafted I won another $5, I think he learned his lesson.
My proudest Prop Bet...
For those of you who've met me, I'm not exactly an athletic guy anymore. I played sports in high school, but sports was always a distant third in priorities behind academics and social life. I played on the UCSD ultimate frisbee team my first few years of college, but that quickly fell down my list of college-life priorities also. My senior year, my closest friend coaxed me into joining the Water Polo team with him. He'd payed all 4 years, and was a local star. I, on the other hand, didn't know how to swim. At least, not much more than survival level. He sold me on it because the JV squad needed a goalie, and there was some caveat that Seniors could play JV if they hadn't played in the previous years (kinda like red-shirting I guess?). Anyway, long story short (Too Late!), I played the year, led our team to a 13-1 season, and the take away is I'm now a pretty strong swimmer. Fast Forward 4 years to my senior year of college.... My room mate, some friends and I are participating in some illicit entertainment at our apartment, and he gets to talking about how when he went to visit his folks, he exercised in their pool. He was surprised how exhausting treading water could be, and that he could only do it for about 10 minutes without getting winded. I laughed in his face. Being in my worst shape of my life as a senior in high school, he's certain he'd be better at this physical activity than I. After about an hour of discussion, I say... "I could tread water for an hour." The room quiets down. Everyone knows what's going to happen next. My room mate hits the tank for about 45 seconds, and then says, "Can you do it tomorrow?" The rest is negotiating the details of the wager (no Floating-must stay verticle, chin can't touch the water for an hour), and me making sure we can pool up enough action where i'm willing to make an ass of myself in a swimming pool in front of everyone. After $300 in action is on the table, we wake up early the next day and hit the local Pool. It's hard to give much detail to the actual event itself. I mean it was probably the most boring thing in the world if you didn't have any action on it. But my friends were either Cheering or Jeering depending on what side of the bet they were on, as i calmly cycle my legs around in the diving well of this local pool. Parents of kids getting swimming lessons were staring and whispering, but I just kept treading. Surely enough, I completed the hour (as I well knew I could a few hours if needed), a bunch of money changed hands, and we had a huge party.
Why make prop bets?
Prop Bets, in my opinion, are the gamer's games. There are no fixed rules to the prop bet, the two gamers decide them when the bet is place. This is where the 'magic' happens. The definition of the prop bet at the beginning is often times a big indicator on who will win. But not always. The "Wanna Bet?" moment becomes very loaded when both parties know the other is likely to accept. In reality, one person is acting on emotion, and who ever isn't, usually wins. In my Treading Water example, my roommate, a decent athelete, wasn't willing to admit I might have an edge on him in this physical activity, even though I'm in much worse shape. He just had to pick an amount of time where he was sure that edge would show. 1 hour wasn't it, and he lost the bet. Notice here, that I had all the information, and all the power. I knew what I could do, and for those of you who haven't had formal swim training, treading water in a deep enough pool is actually easier than standing up, if you have the proper technique. The key is finding a gamer who makes a superlative or hyperbole-ridden comment that they may be too stubborn or emotional to back down from. Believe it or not, this happens all the time. The terms of the bet need to be clear, with minimal loop holes. It's okay to make them complicated too. Lots of caveats, or exceptions or situations that guarantee a double-action. Don't waste your energy convincing them, spend the time crafting the bet. Keep in mind, many times a simple, "wanna bet?" is all thats needed. Usually once money is on the line they'll already curb their over-enthusiasm, and you can see where they're really at, and if you want to make a bet. It's equivalent to a trader saying, "What do you value this at?"
The best Prop bet ever...
This is an amazing story about some online poker grinders that made a prop bet that changed their lives and friendship. Not exactly the type of prop bet I'd reccomend, but its an awesome read.
This weekend, make a prop bet. Even if you're not the gambling type, maybe it's playing the Credit Card game at dinner, or gambling on who has to drive first on the road trip to the Vegas PTQ this weekend. Just do it. When you out game a gamer, nothing feels better.
Happy Friday!
The best Prop bet ever...
This is an amazing story about some online poker grinders that made a prop bet that changed their lives and friendship. Not exactly the type of prop bet I'd reccomend, but its an awesome read.
This weekend, make a prop bet. Even if you're not the gambling type, maybe it's playing the Credit Card game at dinner, or gambling on who has to drive first on the road trip to the Vegas PTQ this weekend. Just do it. When you out game a gamer, nothing feels better.
Happy Friday!
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